I don't mind China being distracted by India, but nobody should want an actual war. So this is probably good news:
India and China are close to an agreement to stop tension on their contested border touching off confrontation while they try to figure out a way to break decades-old stalemate on overlapping claims to long stretches of the Himalayas. ...
Under the new agreement, the two nuclear-armed sides will give notice of patrols along the ill-defined border. They will ensure that patrols do not "tail" each other to reduce the chance of confrontation.
The two armies, strung out along the 4,000-km (2,500-mile) border from the high altitude Ladakh plateau in the west to the jungles of Arunachal Pradesh in the east, have also agreed to set up a hotline between top ranking officers, in addition to existing brigade-level contacts.
It is seemingly good news for India.
But I have to wonder if China is trying to preempt India's recently begun efforts to match China's much improved military capabilities on China's side of the border (in part with much better transportation networks).
Because otherwise, China has had the advantage in the small scale confrontations that China has used to eat away at India's claimed territory. Does China just want to prevent India from being able to match China in these small confrontations? Or even medium-sized incursions to snatch territory by forces up to division-size?
Really, I don't think the land front can be a decisive front for either side.
But China has an incentive to maintain their ability to snatch contested territory rapidly and then go on defense and dare India to risk a lengthy fight with a nuclear-armed power while the world urges an end to the fight (with China still in control of the disputed land) lest it escalate to nuclear war by design or accident.
So I guess the agreement is only good for India if it does not reduce their sense of urgency to restore the balance of power along the land border with China. India may not be able to lose decisively in the strategic sense by losing a military battle in the north, but India can lose a little in a decisive military defeat if the present situation continues.
