Syrian rebels captured the Hamdan airport in the east:
If rebels keep their hold on the airport, then Albu Kamal, a border city of more than 60,000 people, is likely to stay in rebel hands, said Rami Abdulrahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The fighters seized Albu Kamal two days ago but had been unable to take the nearby Hamdan airport, from which helicopters had been taking off and hitting rebel areas.
"These new captures means that the largest territory outside of regime control is now the region along the Iraqi border in Deir al-Zor," he said.
But the rebels' hold of territory on the ground is unlikely to prevent attacks from the sky, in what has become a typical cycle for clashes between the Syrian army and rebels.
If memory serves me, this was the last Syria station on the suicide bomber pipeline that drew in jihadis from the Sunni world to send them into Iraq.
This is part of a general erosion of Assad's position in the east:
A Syrian rebel offensive that captured border crossings with Turkey and Iraq aims to cut off supplies from the country's main grain and oil-producing region and speed President Bashar al-Assad's downfall, a tribal leader said.
Speaking from the rebel-held town of Ras al-Ain on the border with Turkey, Sheikh Nawaf al-Bashir said rebels are planning to advance into two lightly defended frontier towns further east in the resource-rich province of Hasaka, 600 km (375 miles) from Damascus.
Free Syrian Army fighters captured Ras al-Ain ten days ago in a push to seize control of frontier areas from Assad's forces.
Apparently, Assad finally understands that he can't afford to fight for that territory:
"The regime is seeing that it can no longer maintain a hold on outlying provinces. It is starting to pull back forces to defend Damascus," he added.
Indeed. It was clear from the beginning that Assad had to cut his losses in the east to focus on the west. At best, he could nail down the west and then reclaim the east.
But Assad has lost too many troops to do this. I don't think he can hold the west--from Aleppo down to the Israeli border. Assad would be lucky to be able to hold the Alawite core coastal area plus a buffer zone inland, and notably excluding Damascus itsels. Ideally Assad would get some very visible Russian support to bolster his people's morale in such a contraction of his state.
Or, Assad can keep fighting the way he is and watch the slow cumulative process of bits falling away from his control accelerate until it is too late to fall back to a Rump Alawite state.
Don't let the prospects of chaos confuse the the reality that if Assad's regime falls, this will be a victory for us. Period. The Baathist regime of the Assads has done us a lot of harm over the decades and has a lot of American blood on its hands.
Coping with the fall of Assad will be another challenge, to say the least. And bad things can happen. But no victories in foreign policy solve all problems. Decisive defeat of the Nazis who threatened Western civilization in Europe just left us a powerful Soviet Union looming over Western Europe.
Work the problems. There will always be another to worry about. I only hope for diplomacy smart enough to keep the rate at a manageable level.
