ECOWAS is likely to send troops to Mali, but they'll do little more than keep the northerners from marching south and maybe keep the Malian factions from renewed fighting:
Diplomats, who see a conflict as likely if not yet inevitable, suggest an intervention begun in haste will be catastrophic, not least because serious questions remain about ECOWAS's own capacity. ...
Few available ECOWAS troops have combat experience in a desert. ...
Neither the Malian army nor ECOWAS will be able to tackle the influx of arms and soldiers from Libya to northern Mali through southern Algeria and northern Niger, warns the ICG without “clear involvement of the Algerian... authorities”.
ECOWAS has made it clear that it needs and expects strong backup from outside, particularly in airlifting troops to the combat zones, promoting speculation that France and the USA could play critical roles. Both, predictably, are downplaying their importance.
France has serious concerns about French hostages still held by Islamic radicals. The US formally suspended military engagement with Bamako after the National Committee for the Recovery of Democracy and the Restoration of the State (CNRDRE), headed by US-trained Captain Amadou Sanogo, took power on 22 March.
France has an eye on their hostages. We may say that we find a separatist state and terrorist haven unacceptable, but America wants the government of Mali to restore democracy before thinking about going north:
Regional mediation agreed to elections within one year of the coup. Secretary Clinton says Mali should meet that April deadline "because only a democratically-elected government will have the legitimacy to achieve a negotiated political settlement in northern Mali, end the rebellion, and restore the rule of law."
And then there's the perceived need for UN blessing.
Mali can't do the job. ECOWAS can't do the job. America won't do the job before elections. The UN seems occupied with other issues.
And France, who could bolster Mali and ECOWAS while spearheading a drive north and leveraging American help by going first, is not ready to move.
Nobody likes what is going on but the jihadis (even the Tuaregs seem to realize they have a huge jihadi problem, now), and everything is getting worse, but everyone has reasons for not doing anything.
We're waiting for France.
UPDATE: The UN itself seems unwilling to do anything even as they say something must be done:
U.N. political affairs chief Jeffrey Feltman told a closed Security Council meeting on Thursday that Mali urgently needed international help to reclaim the north of the country from Islamist militants and that "time is not on our side," U.N envoys said.
The UN wants details for how this will be done.
Here it is: France sends a Foreign Legion parachute regiment that advances north and kicks the jihadis out of the major towns; ECOWAS forces follow and garrison what the French troops take; and Mali forces replace ECOWAS forces when they can and Mali tries to hold a new election; US airlift, special forces and drones support, as needed.
Really. That's the best plan available. We're all waiting for France to realize they need to step up.
