[The] Syrian army has been fighting now for about 18 months or so. And any army would be taxed with that kind of pace. So we are expecting that they are having -- and, you know, sanctions and other -- other pressures -- they are having re-supply problems, they are having morale problems, they are having the -- the kind of wear and tear that would come of being in a fight for as long as they have.
And I actually think that's why Iran is stepping in to form this militia to take some of the pressure off of the Syrian military.
I noted that the Syrians had no way to rotate troops and that their army is just wearing out.
Already, a defecting Syrian prime minister claims Assad holds only 30% of Syria. Assad would have a better chance of surviving if the 30% was a contiguous Core Syria rather than scattered outposts and pockets around all of Syria.
And militias--which Iran is reportedly trying to organize for Assad--by definition can really only be local defense forces. If Assad wants to retreat to a Core Syria or a much smaller Rump Alawite state clinging to the coast, this makes sense. Otherwise, it is just buying time.
Time is valuable, of course. If you have time a real solution might appear during that time you bought.
