Echoing an assessment already voiced by Defence Minister Ehud Barak, Vilnai was quoted as saying hundreds of missiles could hit Israeli cities daily and kill some 500 people in a war with Iran, which has promised strong retaliation if attacked.
"There might be fewer dead, or more, perhaps ... but this is the scenario for which we are preparing, in accordance with the best expert advice," Vilnai said.
"The assessments are for a war that will last 30 days on several fronts," he said, alluding to the possibility Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon and Palestinian militants in Gaza would also launch rockets at Israel.
Of course, this doesn't refute my assumption. This appears to assume that the month refers to Israel enduring a counter-attack on Israeli civilians.
And the counter-attack would mostly be from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Iran could not launch hundred of missiles period let alone daily, so the numbers have to come from Hezbollah, that reportedly has 40,000 rockets stored in southern Lebanon..
The month also has to assume that is how long Israel will take to clean out southern Lebanon and Gaza with ground force invasions to take over the launching sites for those hundreds of rockets.
Although I wonder what else Israel could do directly against Iran quietly in order not to compel Iran to continue to fight long after the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
I wonder if Israel could send a task force of a submarine, some surface warships, and supply vessels to the Arabian Sea and announce a blockade of Iran? That would at least increase insurance and probably deter some shipping. And Israel could stop some ships with a small force.
But it will be a war. Surgical strikes just aren't what they used to be, it seems.
