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Friday, August 10, 2012

Come On, Russia, Pivot!

Russia really doesn't need to worry about an invasion from the West. The Russians show glimmers of recognizing that the only real conventional military threat to them comes from China, where the flag might follow trade.

Perhaps reports like this will finally comfort the Russians into accepting that no Hitler or Napoleon is going to rally Europe to invade Russia:

NATO nations have few if any plans to mobilize or reconstitute large-scale combat forces should the strategic environment change. This is a serious risk.

Unless the Russians want to exploit this problem to restore their own ability to march at least part way west, they need to act on the strategic space they have in the west to shore up their shaky conventional defenses in the east:

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday issued a veiled warning about China's rising influence in Russia's resource-rich Far East, saying it was essential to defend the area against "excessive expansion by bordering states".

Speaking days after Russia's first deputy defense minister said two new nuclear submarines would be sent to the Pacific Fleet, Medvedev also said it was "important not to allow negative manifestations ... including the formation of enclaves made up of foreign citizens."

Russia is one good anti-Chinese riot from seeing Chinese troops cross the border to protect their citizens and evacuate them back to China.

Russia has two military options against China: send in special forces for a surgical strike or nuke them. Is this adequate to protect the Far East?

I'm biased, of course. As much as I seriously think that Russia runs a great risk ignoring their Far East, I wouldn't be unhappy to see a Russian build up draw China's attention away from us.