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Sunday, May 20, 2012

How Many Brigades Does the G8 Have?

The Group of 8 largest economies (G8) is standing tall in the Middle East:

"We remain united in our grave concern over Iran's nuclear program," the G8 leaders said in a statement summing up the results of their meeting in Camp David in rural Maryland.

In unusually blunt language, the G8 put the International Energy Agency -- the West's energy adviser responsible for coordinating reserves -- on standby for action.

It is prudent to be ready to release reserves in case someone attacks Iran. But releasing the oil reserves before then is a mistake and just gives Iran a way out by letting them know that they only have endure until our oil reserves are depleted and have to agree to Iran's terms for oil.

And in the Far East, the G8 is pretty bold:

The Group of Eight world leaders has warned North Korea that it faces more sanctions if it continues to threaten the stability of the region with provocative acts such as its failed long-range rocket launch in April.

Which makes me wonder just how many brigades, ships, and air squadrons are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, and Britain willing to commit to these potential hot spots if Iran and North Korea don't toe the lines?

Canada is a good ally with good troops. But for ground forces, don't count on more than a battalion. You could add a few ships and a squadron of fighters. They might help in the Far East or Middle East, I'd guess.

France? Are they running early from Afghanistan so they'll be poised to fight Iran and North Korea? At best, figure a naval task force that might include their single carrier plus some land-based planes to help in the Persian Gulf.

Germany? At best they might kick Iran and North Korea out of the euro single currency zone. No troops from Germany.

Italy? They provided bases for the Libya War. But unless Iran and North Korea get closer, that option for help is out. Like France, maybe we get a naval task force centered around a helicopter carrier and some land-based aircraft in the Persian Gulf.

Japan? Their constitution will make them cautious. Don't expect combat forces for an Iran scenario. But they would be able to offer substantial naval and air power against North Korea. But ground troops on the mainland of Asia? I rather doubt it.

Russia? Russia is not going to help us under any circumstances. If we have to pay more for Russian oil exports, they'll be content.

Britain? A good ally but they would be hard pressed to deploy more ground forces than they already have committed to Afghanistan. At best we could get some planes and ships--good ones, mind you--and not many of them.

Given that Iran and North Korea aren't significant air and naval powers, air and naval help is the least of our needs.

As for us, well just this year we abandoned our former defense guidance to prepare to fight and win 2 (nearly simultaneous) wars.

And now we stand with the G8 telling two rogue states seeking nuclear missiles that we are prepared to confront them. We'll see how multi-lateral the G8 is feeling if the bullets start to fly.