That's Disturbing

Iran's military is mostly an illusion. Sanctions since the Iranian Revolution nearly 35 years ago have made Iran's conventional forces pretty hollow. They could take on Iraq only because Iraq has a largely internal security military that has years to go to transition to a conventional force. And Arab states across the Gulf are much smaller in population. Otherwise, the Iranians have terrorism, bluster, a reputation from centuries of kicking butt and taking names in the region, and the threat of eventually having nuclear weapons.

So what are the Iranians spending all that defense money on?

The government is doubling its defense budget (to about four percent of GDP) in the next year. This could cause problems, as the government budget is planned on the assumption that the economy will grow eight percent in the coming year, despite major new sanctions. Last year, economic growth, largely because of rising oil prices, was 7.3 percent. Last year's defense budget was $8 billion, and this year is closer to $16 billion. In the last five years, Iranian defense spending has more than quadrupled.

I know that isn't a lot compared to what we spend. And we can still trounce them in conventional conflict.

But doubling spending in a year and quadrupling it in the last 5 means there is a lot more money available to Iran. What are they spending this money on?

Iran could still surprise us and inflict more losses on us than we're comfortable with in order win--which Iran can hope will scare us off from completing a win.