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Saturday, December 10, 2011

Your Threat is Our Excuse

Assad has been using the prospect of regional chaos (whether he provokes it or not) as a reason to back his repression to restore order under his continuing rule. Better the Devil you know, he says. And boy is he a Devil.

But Turkey is having none of that. Sure, Russia and China have learned their lesson from Libya and won't let any Syria resolution get out of the Security Council lest the West twist the mildest of humanitarian language into a regime change war. But Turkey appears to have established conditions for intervention that don't require a United Nations Security Council blessing:

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu did not say what action Ankara might take, but he made clear Turkey would not hesitate to insulate the region's security from tumult in Syria. Turkey shares a 900 km (560 mile) border with Syria.

"Turkey has no desire to interfere in anyone's internal affairs. But if a risk to regional security arises, then we do not have the luxury of standing by and looking on," Davutoglu told reporters in Ankara.

"If a government that is fighting its own people and creating refugees, is putting not only their own security at risk but also that of Turkey, then we have a responsibility and the authority to say to them: 'Enough!'" he said.

Turkey has given notice that they have the responsibility and authority to intervene to protect their own security.

Does this threat constrain Assad in how far he can go to suppress the simmering revolt? Will he accept a slowly deteriorating situation in the hope that the opposition finally breaks under the steady rate of killing and torture? Or does Assad make plans to win quickly that include fighting Turkey? Watch those Syrian chemical weapons, if so.