Could radical Islamists take over? Could be. That's a risk in pretty much any Moslem country, truth be told. But that is no reason to conclude that only a friendly strongman can keep them in our column.
Religious candidates are winning in Egypt's new elections. But it is too soon to wring our hands and say that promoting democracy is foolhardy:
The first round of voting (for parliament) in Egypt saw Islamic conservatives take over fifty percent of the seats. But only a third of the Islamic winners are the conservative (Salafist) types who want Sharia (Islamic) law and a religious dictatorship. Most of the Islamic seats went to men who say they are willing to work in a democratic government.
And however flawed they are, the Egyptian army doesn't want an Islamic dictatorship. So Islamists must be careful lest they provoke the army into taking over (and providing the army an excuse to take over that the population will accept as legitimate).
And Egyptians seem to be rethinking their early enthusiasm for canceling their peace treaty with Israel:
An opinion poll last April revealed that 54 percent of the population wanted to cancel the peace treaty. This would risk war with Israel, which Egyptians, on reflection, decided was not a good thing. Now the majority are willing to keep the treaty.
We'd be well served to focus on making the election process honest and regular rather than worrying too much about who wins. If we aren't doing that, we risk future disaster. After all, if our focus is on engineering a win for one faction, aren't we teaching the Egyptians that democracy is about manipulating elections to get what you want? The European Union can teach Moslems that lesson. We shouldn't be in that business.
As long as there is a next election, voters can rethink the wisdom of their vote and hold those in power accountable for what they did with that power granted.
I promise, if I think Egypt has gone down the tubes and our policies are a disaster, I'll speak up. I might even panic.
