Erdogan told Al-Jazeera television in a recent interview that the Israeli raid, which killed eight Turks and a Turkish American on board a Turkish ship trying to break Israel's naval blockade of Gaza, occurred in international waters and was "unlawful." His comments were carried by Turkey's state-run Anatolia news agency late Sunday.
"It is a cause for war, but we decided to act in line with Turkey's grandeur and showed patience," Erdogan said.
Private individuals, some from Turkey, tried to penetrate a legal blockade and were killed when Israeli boarders were ambushed? If this was an act of war, wasn't it Turkey doing the illegal act if Erdogan is claiming the individuals as acting for Turkey?
This is very bad. Israel can't afford to have a hostile Turkey. The Israelis need to suck it up and do what it takes to avoid giving Erdogan a pretext to shoot. Neutralizing Turkey is absolutely crucial. While a naval clash would be won by Israel because of their superior air power, just fighting would be a defeat.
If a clash can't be avoided, does NATO want what Turkey becomes to remain in the alliance as a fully trusted member? Turkey's outreach to China and Iran is disturbing enough. I wouldn't advocate expelling Turkey from the alliance, since I'd rather not push them all the way out and hope post-Erdogan Turkey is better. But limits on sharing information and technology should then be put in place quietly.
UPDATE: And again, happening when Egypt is teetering makes the situation even more critical for Israel to navigate. The problem with both Egypt and Turkey is when do you know if the situation is a deterioration of relations that can be ridden out with patience and a policy that seeks to let the passions blow over; or whether the deterioration is an advanced warning of hostility and war that means you need to prepare for war right now--with deterring the war the best case? We're nervous, too:
The Obama administration is watching warily as relations among its allies Israel, Egypt and Turkey deteriorate, threatening Mideast stability and U.S. goals for the region.
And can we have enough influence on Egypt and Turkey to keep their hostility in check until it blows over and cooler heads prevail?
Whatever we say in public to seem even handed, in private the Turks and Egyptians should know in no uncertain terms that we will side with Israel in a military clash. This is no place for "nuance" unless we want to risk the Turks or Egyptians thinking they have a "green light" from us to use force to make a point.
