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Thursday, July 07, 2011

Can "White Russia" Have a Color Revolution?

Is the last fading shadow of the Soviet Union outside of Western faculty lounges on its way out?

Hundreds of people have been arrested across Belarus, where security forces pounced on people protesting against President Alexander Lukashenko.

Journalists witnessed demonstrators being beaten and manhandled around the capital Minsk on Wednesday, and other cities and towns also saw a crackdown.

Silent protests have been taking place regularly over the past month.

Mr Lukashenko has vowed to repress opposition protests as the country reels from an economic crisis.

A balance of payments crisis has gripped the country's command economy, leading to a 36% devaluation of the local currency (the rouble) and inflation.

President Lukashenko's authoritarian 16-year rule has led to sanctions by Western governments while the country's chief ally, Russia, has attached tough privatisation conditions to an expected bail-out worth $1.2bn (£700m; 800m euros).

I've expected the Russians to engineer a creeping takeover with the conditions of the aid. So any color revolution will be "red", I suppose (well, you know what I mean).

With the Belorus economy in such bad shape and their people upset, how many of Belorus' rulers would welcome being small fish in a larger and more secure pond?