In its attempt to stamp out protests across the country of 23 million, the government has withdrawn most security forces from the suburbs of the capital, Damascus, diplomats say.
Yet each time the authorities go in hard to deal with one center of rebellion, other towns rise up.
Reliant on two elite units commanded by his brother Maher -- the 4th Armored Division and the Republican Guard -- as well as secret police and militia from his minority Alawite sect, President Assad is plainly overstretched.
I speculated that this problem would emerge.
So does Syria start killing on a truly massive scale with a couple Hama massacres to terrorize the country or perhaps risk a war with Israel in Lebanon to somehow convince the people and world to support Assad?
Lack of money could be the tipping point as long as protesters keep appearing on the streets to challenge the regime (from the initial story):
One diplomat said Assad's cousin, the business tycoon Rami Makhlouf who is a hate figure for protesters, has recently deposited $1 billion at the central bank to stabilize the Syrian pound.
"When they are no longer capable of paying the salaries of bureaucrats, the army, the police and their Alawite militia this crisis will balloon and bring about the collapse of the regime," the diplomat said. "This is a train wreck waiting to happen."
Signs of stretched resources and fraying loyalties are already apparent.
Maybe we get lucky and in the end the Assads and their top cronies flee in the night. Assad, in contrast to Khaddafi, could at least hope to retire in luxury someplace else as the price of his departure. The article is well worth reading in its entirety.
