Head Fake

Even though China's land-based threats to our aircraft carriers is real, we at least have the capacity to cope with or minimize this threat. Although the DF-21 anti-ship ballistic missile is new, the threat of land-based systems to our ships is something we faced in the Cold War with the Soviet Union. Countries like Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea will have to fend for themselves longer, of course, but we still have the power to beat China at sea if we have the time to be careful.

But China's threat to India is far more severe, even in India's own backyard:

The remoteness of the Indian Ocean, coupled with unfinished business close to home, will apply a brake on Chinese strategy. On the other hand, advances in military technology—in particular an antiship ballistic missile (ASBM) purportedly capable of striking throughout the China seas and into the Indian Ocean basin—promise to ease such constraints. If the PLA Navy can rely on shore-based fire support over vast distances, naval commanders might get by with fewer resources, not only in China’s near seas but in remote theaters like South Asia. The capacity to mount an economy-of-force deployment backed by long-range fire support would reduce risk in the near seas—making the decision easier for Beijing to send the ships forth. While technology is not everything, it does carry strategic import.

What got my attention was the mention of anti-ship ballistic missiles as a threat to India, which I mentioned here. Let me repost the map from that post:

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PLA_ballistic_missiles_range.jpg

The DF-21 reaches into the western Pacific, but at least it doesn't encompass our homeland west of the Rocky Mountains. India is under the gun from the DF-21 already. The DF-3A, if used in the anti-ship role, provides coverage for China all the way to the Persian Gulf.

On the bright side, India obviously has the advantage of using their own land-based missiles and aircraft to hit Chinese ships trying to operate in the Indian Ocean under an umbrella of land-based anti-ship missiles.

It would be a fascinating campaign. Let's hope we don't find ourselves living in interesting times.