There is some new military activity up north. A new (longer and heavier) version of the Song (Tiger) coastal (300 ton) submarine has shown up, and is making a lot of training trips. The Song boats were originally designed mainly for carrying commandos, but some are equipped with torpedo tubes. There has been more activity by North Korean Navy warships and support craft (like amphibious ships).
The problem is, they rely on bluffing the South Koreans onto paying. The balance of forces have swung so far to South Korea's advantage that any escalation to general war would--however expensive it would be to South Korea (especially to Seoul)--end with the destruction of the North Korean regime.
And absent South Korea blinking in a crisis over their islands, North Korea risks a humiliating loss out there if South Korea strikes back.
And if things go badly in the only remaining realm of competence, North Korea could face internal problems which are already showing:
In the North Korean capital, security forces are frantically seeking the sources of anti-government printed material. This includes one page mini-posters and 60 page pamphlets. These items are not only professionally printed (apparently in North Korea), but written by skilled communicators (perhaps also from North Korea). The ruling Kim family has demanded that the publishers and writers of these treasonous, anti-Kim, materials be found. But after weeks of efforts, the police have come up with nothing. That is even more frightening for the northern rulers.
Worse, regime elites are starting to think in terms of getting the heck out of Dodge if things go badly rather than manning the ramparts to crush any revolt:
It's become obvious that things are going downhill real fast up north, and the best form of insurance is a pile of foreign cash. This is often Chinese Yuan, which is like a second currency in the north. Cash can buy you out of a lot of trouble. If it can't, it can assist if you have to run for the border. For a growing number of officials, cash is life, and everything is for sale.
How much are the elites worried? This much:
The recent (and ongoing) uprisings in Arab countries have terrified North Korean rulers. An example of the extent of this fear is what happened to the 200 North Koreans who were working in Libya when the rebellion there revently broke out. While other nations evacuated their citizens working there, the North Korean government ordered these 200 North Koreans to not return home. Arrangements were made to send these expatriate workers elsewhere, as some kind of refugee.
I actually mentioned this potential--but for China. I didn't realize North Korea had workers in Libya.
As is well known, being fat on corruption, drunk on power, and too stupid to develop an economy to support all that is no way to go through life. And the Kims won't.
UPDATE: China does fear the example of the Arab Spring.
