Wait for Results

Despite my concerns about the Obama foreign policy on Libya, it is a worry about how it will work out in the end. The last minute bait and switch from no-fly zone to no-drive (we get to bomb the enemy) ended one major problem I saw with the administration's policy. And I'm not upset at all that the Europeans are taking the lead in military action over Libya. As I've said, let them take the lead. We're busy. Sorry to the Brits for having to step up in Libya, too, in addition to Iraq and Afghanistan. I'm not even upset that President Obama wants to limit our attacks to days and not weeks. Our NATO allies (and Arab allies) who will participate lack the ability to go after air defenses. We have that capability. If we take the lead on this target set over several days, we open the door for our allies to spend weeks controlling the air and working over the loyalists on the ground with minimal combat air support from us (but with our other supporting planes backing the air effort with intel, targeting, refueling, and logistics). All this can help the rebels hold at Ajdabiya and points east as well as in Misrata in the west.

My concern comes from what happens after several weeks if there is a stalemate and Khaddafi is still in power--and I suspect he will be unless we manage to really savage his ground forces as I noted a bit earlier and get lucky with further revolts in the west. Face it, the Europeans have neither the money nor the will to see this through if the going get tough. Our NATO and Arab allies will beg the state of their finances, declining poll numbers, or worn out air units and will peel off of the mission one by one (remember that George W. Bush did have a real coalition when the war with Iraq started in 2003). We may have temporarily avoided a lesson in how the world reacts to a crisis without America, but that doesn't mean we will get a chance to see how nuanced Europeans can manage a crisis without America taking the lead in cowboy fashion.

And then we'll have the loyalists, rebels, and American forces left in the ring. I'll be generous and say the British (although if they think our special relationship was killed by President Obama, who knows?) will still be with us--but in much reduced form--and that Italy and Spain will continue to allow use of their air bases at least for a while. Oh, and we'll still have President Obama's declaration that Khaddafi must go, his recent ultimatum for the loyalists to retreat from several cities, that UNSC resolution that allowed the president to intervene, and let's not forget his Nobel Peace Prize shield against criticism.

Will we tough it out in Libya when left nearly alone? After all, that's what a true cowboy does rather than calculating risks and costs over benefits, and riding off into the sunset before the homesteaders are saved.

Our options will be sending in a ground division to take Tripoli and end the stalemate (igniting European and world anger); standing on the defense in the east (and a West Berlin-like enclave at Misrata in the west) on our own, enforcing the no-fly zone as the world media shows us the heart-breaking images of "starving and sick" children and limping puppies suffering under the no-fly zone and sanctions (does anybody remember our experience with this in Iraq between Operations Desert Storm and Iraqi Freedom?) but also abandoning people that UNSC Resolution 1973 said we could protect because they are on the wrong side of the new DMZ; arming the rebels to win the war in defiance of UNSC Resolution 1973 which calls for a ceasefire; or convincing the Egyptians to intervene with up to a corps--but going all the way to Tripoli to win the civil war for the rebels.

I worry we're on a wing and a prayer with this European-led air mission, but I'd rather this work out than see my many worries come true. Good luck and I'll cheer on the coalition's and the president's military actions.