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Thursday, February 17, 2011

Siding With China?

If Russia really wants to regain their empire, it makes sense to me that they'd deploy their four new French-designed Mistral amphibious warfare ships to the Black Sea (first) and and Baltic Sea (second). Two in each would make sure at least one is ready at all times to attack in the southern Caucasus (Georgia, for example) or to attack their former Baltic States or support their Kaliningrad enclave by threatening Poland's coast.

But instead, to undermine Western objections to France's sale of these ships, Russia has promised to deploy two of them (the two that will be built in France) to the Pacific Fleet (from my Jane's email updates):

Russia calls for increased military deployments on Kuril Islands
In making the statement, Medvedev said the islands were an "inseparable" part of the country and a strategic Russian region. No direct reference was made to what military equipment would be deployed on the islands, although the Russian RIA Novosti news agency reported today that the new Mistral-class amphibious assault ships, being built in a deal with France, would be deployed to the region[.]

It makes no sense to deploy these ship to defend the Kuril Islands. Russia should be able to use ports and airfields they already own to reinforce their defenders there.

Would it make sense to have them there for naval missions to Southeast Asia? I don't think so. What interests there does Russia have besides supporting Vietnam? And how could the Russian navy support Vietnam? That's a long way to go to die without any significant local support.

Deploying Mistrals to the Pacific Fleet only makes sense to threaten to attack Japan. I find it hard to believe Russia would do that given the otherwise sorry state of their Far East forces and Japan's alliance with America. Japan alone would send any Russian fleet operating in the Sea of Japan to the bottom of the sea in short order.

What is does do is perhaps make Japan slow down the shifting of their forces from Hokkaido Island where they guarded against a Soviet threat to southern Japan where they can guard against Chinese attacks.

Mind you, in the end I don't think that it makes sense to deploy the ships to the Pacific (or the Northern Fleet, for that matter). Russia will put them in the Black and Baltic Seas when it is too late for France to get the ships back.

But when Russia will find it increasingly needs Japanese help against a China that could be more aggressive towards Russia, Russia deflects Western worry that might undermine the sale by poking at and alienating Japan by refusing to discuss the Northern Islands and by stating that Russia will deploy amphibious warfare ships that have no other reason to exist than to threaten Japan and stretch Japanese forces between the north and south.

It's a "reset" all around, apparently.