Strategypage notes the issue of shuffling the same stacked deck:
Keeping the ruling families from taking over again will be difficult, because the opposition parties are a varied lot (from communists to Islamic conservatives) that lack experience, financial and organizations resources, unity and money. But the interim government is doing whatever it can to quiet things down, including dropping all restrictions on media and political parties. The interim government is also arresting the most unpopular members of the Ben Ali government, a move that is clearly aimed at defusing popular anger. The prisoners know the drill, that they can later buy their way out of jail. But for now, it's best to look contrite and go along.
This isn't the only potential problem. Don't forget the importance of rule of law, since Islamists who only want elections as a means to absolute control also get to vote:
Tunisian Islamists had a minimal role in overthrowing Mr. Ben Ali, but they will surely scramble to exploit the opportunity that has opened to them. Indeed, the leader of Tunisia's main Islamist organization, Ennahda, has announced his first return to the country since 1989. Does interim President Fouad Mebazaa, 77, have the savvy or political credibility to maintain power? Will the military keep the old guard in power? Do moderate forces have the cohesion and vision to deflect an Islamist surge?
And don't forget that democrats who rely on Twitter and Facebook aren't the only ones who could be inspired by the fall of a tyrant. Islamists have long considered the autocrats of the Arab Moslem world as enemies, and these Islamists could be inspired, too.
A lot of people won't want to waste this crisis. Let's make sure we're in the game, to make sure that this crisis is an opportunity to promote democracy in Tunisia and make sure the example Tunisia sets is one we can live with.
Don't get involved in a self-absorbed argument over whether Iraq had a role in inspiring the revolt in Tunisia. That is just one more round of the never-ending debate about whether we should have invaded Iraq and overthrown Saddam Hussein. Leave the question of whether Iraq and Tunisia can be lumped into the same category to history, which will have the perspective to judge whether this is a new epoch of change in the Arab world. We can't know, and all we'll do is argue the same old question once more.
Focus, people. We have a crisis that could go to waste if we don't pay attention.
UPDATE: The opposition clearly fears the new interim government could too easily be used to perpetuate the ruling class that Ali represented:
Four ministers quit Tunisia's day-old government on Tuesday, undermining its hopes of quelling unrest by sharing power with members of the opposition to the old regime.
All who resigned were opponents of deposed President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali's iron-fisted 23-year rule and had been named to the government Monday. ...
"I am afraid that our revolution will be stolen from me and my people. The people are asking for freedoms and this new government is not. They are the ones who oppressed the people for 22 years," said Ines Mawdud, a 22-year-old student among protesters at the demonstration.
A lot can go wrong. It usually does. And just hoping for good things to naturally happen will just ensure that one of the many bad things that could happen will happen.
