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Thursday, May 13, 2010

The End of the Line?

I wondered how long we could resist Chinese pressure to halt arms sales to Taiwan, given China's growing power. If that balance continues to move in China's favor, will Taiwan be able to buy from anyone at all?

This opinion piece asks the same thing, essentially.

Taiwan has several options to deal with a narrowing list of weapons that America is willing to sell them, should Chinese pressure on America succeed:

1) Taiwan can turn to Russia, the only country likely to be willing to sell to Taiwan (it is in Russia's interests to keep China's military pointed at Taiwan and not Russia).

2) Taiwan can develop their own arms industry to replace what they now must import.

3) Taiwan can deploy nuclear weapons.

All are difficult and none replace the advantage of having America on their side should it come to a war with Peking. Ideally, Chinese power relative to America would not grow enough to make us vulnerable to Chinese pressure over arms sales, but that might be difficult to affect, eh?

Or, of course, Taiwan could surrender their democracy and de facto independence and just let China absorb them. They wouldn't do that, would they?