The Tyranny of Distance

Strategypage writes--again--that Chinese military power does not come close to matching our military power and that they cannot threaten us. Strategypage then likens this to over-stating Soviet power during the Cold War, arguing that the Russians were no threat to us.

As I often do when I read these pieces, I like to respond that yes, indeed, our military power is far greater than China's and will likely be far greater than China's for as far as the eye can see. And even if China matches or exceeds us, we're likely to have far greater deployable power than China which faces nearby enemies and potential enemies on their borders.

But to conclude that China is therefore no threat ignores the fact that China can be a threat to our interests near their shores and in a localized conflict. Anyone remember the Korean War?

Today, the threat is over Taiwan. Again, China does not have to beat us to defeat us. China has to beat Taiwan. And to beat Taiwan, all China has to do in regard to America is delay us long enough to defeat Taiwan.

China could build a small core of more effective forces in order to conquer Taiwan even as their overall military remains of poorer quality.

As an aside, I also disagree with their assertion about the Soviet threat to America. Yes, we were stronger than the Soviets in the Cold War, but we faced a worse problem geographically than in regard to Taiwan. In NATO, the critical battlefield was West Germany and the Soviets had the advantage of being near with most of their power, while we were far and had but a fraction of our power available to fight on day one of a soviet invasion.