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Saturday, February 13, 2010

Stupid Is As Stupid Does?

The last time Iraq held parliamentary elections, the Sunni Arabs boycotted the vote and later regretted it deeply. It was a stupid decision based on the belief that they could bomb their way to victory instead.

Today, Iraq's Sunni Arabs are blindly focused on de-Baathification rulings that have banned a number of Sunni Arab candidates (although not exclusively Sunni Arabs):

Iraqi officials confirmed on Saturday that appeals by prominent Sunni politicians against a move to ban them from next month's election had failed, opening the door to sectarian recriminations that could mar the vote.

Many Iraqi Sunnis are alarmed by a campaign by the Shi'ite-led government against people accused of links to former Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein's Baath party, and a decision by a panel to ban almost 500 candidates because of Baathist links.

The controversy has threatened to reopen old wounds just when the sectarian slaughter triggered by the 2003 U.S. invasion has begun to fade and Iraq has started to attract multibillion-dollar investments from global oil firms.

Usama al-Ani, deputy head of the independent electoral commission, or IHEC, said the agency had received a formal notification from an appeals panel that only 26 appeals by banned candidates had been successful.

One hundred and forty-five appeals were rejected, he said. Other candidates had been voluntarily replaced by their parties.

I don't know nearly enough about the banned candidates to judge whether these people are wrongly accused or whiny "ex-Baathists."

But regardless, the solution lies within the system and not by boycotting the election and thinking they can restart their war. They lost. Iraq's security apparatus is much stronger now than three years ago when the Awakening took off. And the Sunni Arabs are much weaker with al Qaeda in Iraq a shadow of its former strength. Further, a lot of the leaders are now known to the Iraqi government with biometric data taken.

It is even possible that many Shias and Kurds would love the Sunni Arabs to--again--boycott the elections and stay outside the government. Mistrust of the Sunni Arabs runs deep (for a reason). Indeed, many Shias and Kurds would welcome a Sunni Arab revolt to provide an excuse to drive the remaining Sunni Arabs from Iraq and, in the case of the Kurds, perhaps provide an excuse to seek full independence since there would no longer be a multi-ethnic Iraq as a cushion against Shia domination and possible future oppression.

If what the Iraqi courts did was wrong, Sunni Arabs must pursue their claims within the system and in public opinion. And most important, they must get out and vote. This will prevent the Sunni Arabs from largely remaining outside looking in until the next election in four years, and will help convince their former victims that those Sunni Arabs remaining are not looking to stage a coup at the first opening and resume their centuries-long tradition of running the show and their decades-long run at serious neck stomping.

What will it be for the Sunni Arabs of Iraq? Stupidity and self-inflicted wounds or inclusion and a future within a rule-of-law Iraq? Do they really want to take the title of most self-destructive people in the Middle East from the Palestinians?