There was no mass blood bath to either crush the opposition or to inspire more to join it.
Bottom line? The crisis goes on:
The regime appears to have managed successfully what could have been a momentum-building event for the decentralized opposition movement and its various stakeholders. It is not at all clear based solely on Thursday’s events, however, that the regime’s performance, centered in one strategic location of the capital, is sustainable for an indefinite period of time and across the country. It will be critical to observe in the coming weeks and months how the elements of the opposition—buoyed by what appeared to be a more aggressive showing during recent protests late in 2009—react to Thursday’s outcome. This week marked another round of tensions within Iran, and although the regime may have passed this test, it remains impossible to issue a conclusive verdict on the viability and strength of the opposition.
I have no means of judging whether the protests--surprisingly durable--can broaden enough to threaten the regime. Or maybe the government will eventually snuff out the protests by holding them at bay with relatively narrow use of open violence amidst targetted arrests, imprisonments, rapes, and executions.
The opposition deserves our support, of course. But that isn't in the cards. So all I can do is read competing analyses of the protest movement and government and guess about the relative strengths of the two sides.
