But surviving the opening barrage is not the only gauntlet the Taiwanese fleet has to run before taking even their first shot at the Chinese invasion fleet. Chinese submarines operating off of Taiwanese ports (as I wrote about here as part of an invasion scenario) could either lay mines or use missiles and torpedoes to attrite the Taiwanese enough to make them incapable of intervening in the air-naval battle in the strait, throwing the responsibility for winning on to the ground forces.
The Taiwanese should not be surprised should this happen:
Recently, the Taiwanese Navy detected an unidentified submarine outside one of its major naval bases. Ships and helicopters pursued the contact, but the suspected submarine left the area. A Chinese boat was suspected, mainly because for the last decade, Chinese subs have increasingly been showing up close to Japan and South Korea as well.
I'd love to see an article looking at the naval fight aspect of a projected invasion. One thing I suspect is that Taiwan's larger ships would not be deployed into the Taiwan Strait. Without absolute aerial supremacy, such ships would be too vulnerable to Chinese small craft, ships, land-based aircraft, and subs operating in the strait.
Taiwan should wage the naval war in the strait with helicopters, shore-based anti-ship missiles, small craft, subs, and aircraft. The bigger ships should focus on keeping Taiwan's sea lines of communication to America and Japan open so our help (including ammunition) can arrive in a time and in quantities that can do some good.
