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Friday, January 01, 2010

Tour of Duty

Strategypage scans the world's conflicts.

Two of interest include Iraq:

Islamic terrorists are now a police problem. U.S. troops have withdrawn to suburban bases, and casualties are half what they were last year (U.S. deaths declined from 314 to 150, which is way down from the 2007 peak of 904). Violence continues to be down over 80 percent from the bad old days of three years ago. More areas of the country are now at peace (as some have been since 2003.) The Sunni Arab minority has worked out peace deals with the majority Kurds and Shia Arabs. But some Sunni Arab Islamic radicals are still active, supported by Sunni Arab nationalists in the Persian Gulf, and former Saddam supporters in Syria. Some Sunni Arabs, who had fled the country, are returning, but nearly half the Sunni Arabs are still gone. The Shia militias have been defeated as well, mainly by Iraqi police and troops. Corruption and inept government are now the major problems, with potential Iranian meddling (or even invasion) a permanent threat. The major U.S. TV news operations are pulling out. The war is really over.
And Afghanistan:

The "Taliban comeback" keeps getting headlines in the media. But it's the Taliban who are increasingly under attack. There hasn't been a "Taliban Spring Offensive" for the last two years, and the key Taliban financial resource; heroin in Helmand province, in now under attack. The Taliban expected drug gang profits, al Qaeda assistance and Pakistani reinforcements to turn the tide. But al Qaeda is a very junior, and unpopular, partner, and the Pakistani Taliban are sending refugees, not reinforcements. With all that, violence nationwide was up, mainly because there are more foreign troops in the country, being more aggressive against the Taliban and drug gangs. ... Like Iraq, the violence in concentrated in a few small areas (in the south). Independent minded tribes, warlords and drug gangs remain a greater threat to peace, prosperity and true national unity, than the Taliban (on both sides of the Pakistan border). The newly elected Pakistani government finally decided to take on the pro-Taliban tribes and various Islamic terrorist organizations. ... The foreign nations, fighting their war on terror in Afghanistan, have finally realized that there has never been an Afghan national government that was not corrupt, and changing that is going to be more difficult than fighting the Taliban or finding bin Laden.

People panicked needlessly over the course of the war in Iraq. And people are doing the same about our fight in Afghanistan. But our enemies in Afghanistan are no more about to defeat us than they were in Iraq--if we keep our cool and fight them with victory as our objective.

Although I do admit to nightmares on occasion over our supply lines to Afghanistan.