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Friday, September 18, 2009

There Will Be War

One way or the other, there will be a war stemming from Iran's nuclear drive.

And don't be fooled by soothing statements for those who don't want us to stop Iran. Secret IAEA documents show Iran's nuclear weapons abilities are closer than you think:

Iran experts at the U.N nuclear monitoring agency believe Tehran has the ability to make a nuclear bomb and worked on developing a missile system that can carry an atomic warhead, according to a confidential report seen by The Associated Press.

The document drafted by senior officials at the International Atomic Energy Agency is the clearest indication yet that those officials share Washington's views on Iran's weapon-making capabilities and missile technology — even if they have not made those views public.

The document, titled "Possible Military Dimension of Iran's Nuclear Program," appeared to be the so-called IAEA "secret annex" on Iran's alleged nuclear arms program that the U.S., France, Israel and other IAEA members say is being withheld by agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei — claims the nuclear watchdog denies.


Huh.

It's almost as if the IAEA under ElBaradei didn't want us to have an excuse to strike Iran. Are you feeling all international communityish yet?

Stratfor thinks that the Iran situation could spin out of control because nobody is reading the situation correctly:

When we speak to people in Tehran, Washington and Moscow, we get the sense that they are unaware that the current situation might spin out of control. In Moscow, the scenario is dismissed because the general view is that Obama is weak and inexperienced and is frightened of military confrontation; the assumption is that he will find a way to bring the Israelis under control.

It isn’t clear that Obama can do that, however. The Israelis don’t trust him, and Iran is a core issue for them. The more Obama presses them on settlements the more they are convinced that Washington no longer cares about Israeli interests. And that means they are on their own, but free to act.

It should also be remembered that Obama reads intelligence reports from Moscow, Tehran and Berlin. He knows the consensus about him among foreign leaders, who don’t hold him in high regard. That consensus causes foreign leaders to take risks; it also causes Obama to have an interest in demonstrating that they have misread him.


I think Israel could strike Iran even though there is a thought that since Israel can't do as thorough a job as we can that they won't strike.

Clearly, America should do the job to destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure with our greater set of assets. This will be a war, however, since if we do it we should do more to limit Iran's counter-attack capabilities. Have no doubt about it.

The only way I can see us trying to evade our responsibilities to do the job right is to cooperate with Israel, who will strike Iran's nuclear facilities, while we position our forces to strike back at any Iranian retaliation, expanding the target list and continuing the war on Iran's mullahs.

We might very well have the tools to blunt an Iranian missile response which, if Iran tries to use any, would also give us the excuse to go after Iranian strategic assets in a wider mission that looks more like a war.