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Friday, September 04, 2009

Glory Be

China is acting all friendly-like, so naturally Taiwan responds by refraining from doing anything that would provoke their new friend into a raging frenzy:

Taiwan will drop for the first time in 17 years its annual bid to join the United Nations as island President Ma Ying-jeou seeks peace with long-time rival and U.N. heavyweight China, the foreign ministry said on Friday.


Ah, right. China has limits on that "international space" they're prepared to grant Taiwan.

Who doesn't have a friend prone to smashing your face in whenever you protest that he really can't just waltz into your house and make himself at home? I mean, if he has a nice smile other times, that counts for a lot. Right?

Taiwan is confused (or Ma and the KMT anyway). China does not want "peace." China wants Taiwan.

And the lengths Taiwan is expected by Peking to go to in order to avoid angering China should make it clear that smiles are not the same as friendship.

This is a dangerous time for Taiwan. With democracy growing roots in Taiwan, time is not on Peking's side for absorbing Taiwan without difficulty. Yet China's rulers are likely feeling pretty good that the military balance in the Taiwan Strait is finally moving their way. Even if there is no guarantee that the Chinese could pull off an invasion, just having the ability to take the shot might make them a bit cocky if push comes to shove.

And the push might be around the corner. Is China cooking their books to keep a lid on domestic unrest? Are the Chinese gambling that their overseas customers--especially in America and Europe--will start buying again before the people wise up to the real conditions of China?

Once Chinese citizens no longer believe that the economy is doing well, social unrest and more widespread worker riots -- already increasing in scope and severity -- are likely. That's something that China will have a harder time hiding. And then we'll know whether China's statistical manipulation was a smart move or a disastrous mistake.


If so, the nationalism that China has been simmering on the back burner to rally legitimacy for the Chinese Communist Party's rule should economic growth falter might be turned on high.

You can see the new slogan already. Yes comrade, it is surely glorious to get rich. But getting Taiwan is spectacular...