The most important group of religious leaders in Iran called the disputed presidential election and the new government illegitimate on Saturday, an act of defiance against the country’s supreme leader and the most public sign of a major split in the country’s clerical establishment.
A statement by the group, the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qum, represents a significant, if so far symbolic, setback for the government and especially the authority of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose word is supposed to be final. The government has tried to paint the opposition and its top presidential candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi, as criminals and traitors, a strategy that now becomes more difficult — if not impossible.
Remember that Moussavi was never important as a man or candidate. He may or may not be much better than Ahmadinejad.
He is important because his victory means the corrupt system of ensuring the election of presidents acceptable to the hardliners has been cracked.
The protesters may be scattered and leaderless, but if the fissures broaden, the protesters could be emboldened to take to the streets again.
And if the security apparatus is getting conflicting signals from the ruling mullah class, they may break in uncertainty and refuse to suppress new protests or even switch sides.
Given the anger against the system, any break in the facade could bring on a sequence of events that goes far beyond what those inside the system intend as they maneuver for power.
The protest movement was defeated. But the chance to break the system still lives within the ruling elites.
And as an aside, will reporters stop referring to the Revolutonary Guards as "elite"? God, that annoys me. They are "loyal" and "pampered"--not "elite." They are willing--for now--to kill unarmed civilians for the regime--but they are not elite.
Marines are elite. Paratroopers are elite. Rangers are elite. Special forces are beyond elite.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards (Pasdaran) and Basij are not elite any more than Saddam's Republican Guards or Special Republican Guards were elite. When confronted with real soldiers, they break and run. And if faced with armed resistance (centered around defecting army or Pasdaran members) bolstering mass protests, they'll break.
The regime may still win, but the issue is in doubt because of continuing fissures within the leadership class.
UPDATE: More thoughts on this development:
This is likely a monumental blow to Ali Khamenei's position as Supreme Leader. It's no secret that Qom, the most important center of Islamic learning in Iran, has never been friendly territory for Khamenei. Politically skilled, as a religious scholar Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's successor is even less accomplished than his brother-in-arms-turned-deadly-foe, Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the revolution's most ambidextrous political cleric. The pride of Qom's senior clerics, who have given their lives to the serious study of Islamic law, has never stopped bristling at the religious pretensions of Khamenei, who cannot stop trying to promote himself as the most important politico-religious authority in the Shi'ite Muslim world.
If the Iranian street is to have a role in this drama, it will be as a supporting cast to the real struggle within the Iranian system.
This role could just be to help rearrange the deck chairs or it might sink the regime itself if the events spin out of control of those who maneuver for power.
