Yes, the proper focus is on protecting the people in classic counter-insurgency. But I fear the Marines lost an opportunity that won't be repeated to knock back the Taliban to give pacification a real chance to pry the people from the Taliban.
This isn't Anbar where we could leverage local hatred of foreign-led al Qaeda in Iraq thugs into an alliance with our forces. In Iraq, the Sunni Arabs were tainted by associating and allying with the al Qaeda invaders. The problem in Helmand is that the Taliban are local boys:
Villagers in some districts have taken up arms against foreign troops to protect their homes or in anger after losing relatives in airstrikes, several community representatives interviewed said. Others have been moved to join the insurgents out of poverty or simply because the Taliban’s influence is so pervasive here.
On Thursday morning, 4,000 American Marines began a major offensive to try to take back the region from the strongest Taliban insurgency in the country. The Marines are part of a larger deployment of additional troops being ordered by the new American commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, to concentrate not just on killing Taliban fighters but on protecting the population.
Yet Taliban control of the countryside is so extensive in provinces like Kandahar and Helmand that winning districts back will involve tough fighting and may ignite further tensions, residents and local officials warn. The government has no presence in 5 of Helmand’s 13 districts, and in several others, like Nawa, it holds only the district town, where troops and officials live virtually under siege.
The Taliban’s influence is so strong in rural areas that much of the local population has accepted their rule and is watching the United States troop buildup with trepidation. Villagers interviewed in late June said that they preferred to be left alone under Taliban rule and complained about artillery fire and airstrikes by foreign forces.
This is a good summary of the province:
Five out of thirteen districts of Helmand are under virtual control of insurgents. Three others have only minimal presence of government and Coalition Forces.35 The Garm Ser district in the south has seen a large number of insurgent attacks during the past two years. ISAF and the government also lost and fought to regain control of the Garm Ser district several times. Fierce fighting between ISAF and insurgents is also common in the Greshk district. There have been many civilian casualties as a result of suicide bombings, but also ISAF airstrikes.
Musa Qala is another of the most volatile district in the province. The British handed over security of the district to tribal leaders in October 2006 – only to be overrun by the Taliban three months later. The Taliban established a shadow government and their own courts in the districts for almost ten months until thousands of British and U.S. forces recaptured the district with the ANA fighting in the front line. The district center is currently held by the Afghan government and ISAF, but insurgents still have presence in remote north and south of the district.36 Lashkargah has also seen suicide attacks. The enemy likewise seeks to destroy the Kajaki Dam to undercut confidence in the central government and ISAF. In Sangin district, the Taliban use landmines, ambushes, and suicide attacks. Civilian casualty numbers are very high in this district.
The locals who might not like the Taliban have knuckled under to the Taliban's superior force and ruthlessness after many years. The Marines must demonstrate they will stay and make it safe for the locals to drift to neutrality and then support us wholeheartedly. This will take time.
Luckily, Helmand isn't so big that we can't do this if we are persistent:
Although it is the largest province in Afghanistan, Helmand province is one of the most sparsely populated. The provincial population is roughly 1,000,000. The largest city, Lashkargah, is the capital of the province. Most of the population lives in rural areas. Pashtuns form the majority of the population. There are smaller numbers of Balochis, Hazaras and Tajiks in the province. In the winter, roughly 100,000 Kuchi nomads migrate to the province.
The president's Congressional allies want success before the mid-terms in 2010. I don't think the progress we make will be enough to satisfy our now-quiet Left. We will soon be talking about the Kabul clock and the Washington clock much as we discussed the Washington clock and the Baghdad clock during the surge period.
But then, President Bush was there to hold back the Washington clock as much as possible to buy time for the Baghdad clock to catch up. And he did that successfully.
Will President Obama be that tough when the going gets rough? And when he'd rather be at a health care town hall in Akron?
