Don't Panic

We are going to add troops to Afghanistan over the next year. This is not, as I've argued many times, because we are losing in Afghanistan. People here have been claiming that our defeat is imminent for about 7 years now, ever since the prospect of the first dreaded Afghan winter was raised. We are not losing.

Secretary Gates tries to add a little perspective:

"Everyone knows we face significant challenges in Afghanistan, as does the Afghan government," Gates said. "By the same token, the Taliban do not hold any land," and lose every real engagement with NATO or U.S. forces. "So the notion that things are out of control in Afghanistan or that we're sliding toward a disaster, I think, is far too pessimistic."

We don't face disaster there. We face a problem with the Pakistan sanctuaries feeding the violence in Afghanistan. Which means we have to rely on the Pakistanis to control the frontier areas that are now a sanctuary for the enemy. And we need to control the border, which is the most useful job for more troops (but not too many more!).

The basic situation is that we can fight on defense inside Afghanistan to parry the enemy. But we need to win the war inside Pakistan.

Would anybody really want to trade positions with the Taliban and al Qaeda?

I shudder to think how our people would react with a real defeat in war. Work the problem. Don't inflate the problem. The latter just encourages those predisposed to declare Afghanistan unwinnable to surrender and come home--just like they tried to do in Iraq.