President Bush's top defense advisers have recommended he maintain 15 combat brigades in Iraq until the end of the year contrary to expectations that the improved security in Iraq would allow for quicker cuts, The Associated Press has learned.
The first brigade to shift to Afghanistan would take place in February 2009. Reportedly, Petraeus recommended holding the line until June 2009.
More recently, I figured a single brigade would leave Iraq this fall just to show that we are on the way out.
But I also figured that it would be wise to keep our strength high through the end of the year in order to hedge against an election that elects a president committed to withdrawing fast:
So, given this objective of our Left and the success we are having in Iraq, is a strategic pause more about delaying reductions in US forces this year just in case the new president in January 2009 wants to pull out as fast as he or she can? That is, if a new president will withdraw troops quickly no matter what the situation on the ground is, if the military thinks it needs 10 brigades through 2009, wouldn't it be better to have 15 on the ground in January 2009 so that a new president has to ask the Pentagon for plans to withdraw?
Then the military could draw up plans to withdraw a brigade or so per month, present it sometime in June or July, and then hopefully have Congress review it in September after summer recess.
On the other hand, should a candidate win in November who is determined to fight, the reduction in force to eliminate excess forces could begin that month with the confidence that the new president will maintain the numbers needed to win.
Sad to say, we need to protect our victory more from our own politicians than from the enemy these days.
