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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

The Second Crimean War

The Russians are sensitive to Ukrainian actions that at least notionally threaten Russia's naval base at Sevastopol:

Ukraine's pro-Western president, Victor Yushchenko, has sided with Georgia and moved last week to restrict Russian warships at the leased military base at the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, saying the vessels' movements were subject to Ukrainian approval.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed that argument in a sharply worded barb Tuesday, saying Russia's ships don't need any permission to use the port.

The lease agreement says "nothing about us needing to explain to someone why, where to and for how long the Black Sea Fleet ships are leaving their walls," Lavrov was quoted as saying by Russia's state-controlled ITAR-Tass news agency.


The Ukrainians aren't planning to close the harbor or anything, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if, before Ukraine can become a member of NATO, that Russia invades the Crimea to take it from Ukraine before Kiev can cancel the lease.

Russia would probably also send troops into the pro-Russian areas of eastern Ukraine inhabited by many ethnic Russians to have a bargaining chip to get Kiev to swallow the loss of Crimea, at the very least.

But what do I know? When I figured the Olympics would be used by a pseudo-communist country to invade a small democracy, I was thinking Taiwan and not Georgia.