Phase VII will be the Iraq phase with the Iraqi government taking the lead in fighting the insurgents. We will supply air power, special forces, and keep at least seven brigades of troops inside Iraq to deter conventional invasion. I only question the pace of our draw down in this phase. The main question is whether we break Sadr's forces and the other Shia extremists and make the Iraqi government's task easier. The second question is whether Syria and Iran will continue to support their side, perhaps escalating to direct intervention. The third question is whether the government will win by winning hearts and minds or by slaughtering enemies. This phase will last as long as it takes one side or the other to win. Iraqis can't go home. It will be victory or death and on this struggle will depend our image for resolve in the Long War. And whether Iraq serves as a beacon of hope for others or simply reflects the realist-level goal of flipping an enemy Baathist state to a friendly authoritarian state.
I'm happy to say that I underestimated what we could achieve in the surge prior to shifting to Phase VII. We are moving to the background as we focus on logistics and support for the Iraqis who fight. And we are putting our military into non-kinetic roles:
Recent U.S. military success in quelling extremist violence in Baghdad has helped change the way American troops do business in the Iraqi capital.
Troops who once kicked in doors during searches in questionable neighborhoods now knock and ask permission to enter during operations to ferret out terrorists and their weapons.
Military convoys that pushed aside civilian traffic to reach their destinations are less aggressive and bullying in maneuvering through Baghdad´s traffic-jammed streets as the number of improvised explosive devices decreases.
Civil-affairs efforts - from helping refurbish schools to funding business development to improving neighborhood sewerage services - have moved from the back seat to the front.
U.S. officials say the focus has shifted from killing or capturing the enemy to winning the hearts and minds of the people upon whom the enemy has depended.
This is a necessary phase of the war. This phase should last until summer 2009 when we pull back from Iraq's cities under a new agreement with Iraq defining our role, and work to train the Iraqis to provide the logistical and support services that we now provide:
A key part of the U.S.-Iraqi draft agreement envisions the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq's cities by next June 30.
And of course, our presence will be a reserve force that dampens any temptations of factions to start a civil war before democratic habits can be implanted. And our troops will serve as a conventional deterrent to foreign attack until the Iraqi military can defeat terrorists and insurgents and retool the army to fight conventional war.
The next president will be handed an Iraq situation that was purchased at a dear cost--one that was almost too much for our people to bear under the relentless hammering by the anti-war side and the president's failure to defend our effort every day, despite the historically low casualties.
Pray he doesn't blow it.
