The Taliban and al Qaeda are not winning on the battlefield, but are having some success in the infosphere. Manipulating the media is still possible, and terror attacks are selected for their impact on the international news organizations. Locally, the Taliban and al Qaeda are generally despised. Followers of these groups are a minority, and many who say they are believers, are only in it for the money.
And more Marines in Afghanistan now means we are taking the fight to the enemy even harder than we did the last two years.
To assert we are not losing in Afghanistan, I've relied on Strategypage reports to bolster the absence of actual signs of defeat in media stories despite repeated claims in the media that we are losing.
Still, this is not to say we have not problems to face. The regionalization of the Afghan Campaign into the Taliban Campaign that spans the Afghan-Pakistan border means winning in Afghanistan may no longer be enough. Indeed, when the enemy center of gravity moves to Pakistan's tribal regions, public support in Afghanistan to fight the war may erode if Afghans bear the brunt of the war.
We can't invade Pakistan to root out the jihadis. But just adding troops to Afghanistan--if all they do is fight Taliban and al Qaeda invaders from Pakistan inside Afghanistan--may undermine our ability to stay in Afghanistan. Indeed, if our anti-Iraq War gets their way, they will learn the lesson of being careful what you wish for.
