The current total of 20 combat brigades is shrinking to 19 as the 3rd Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, operating in volatile Diyala province, leaves. The U.S. command in Baghdad announced on Saturday that the brigade had begun heading home to Fort Hood, Texas, and that its battle space will be taken by another brigade already operating in Iraq.
The troops were not the surge. As I and many other observers have noted (but the press seems resistant to understanding), the key was the new approach that did not rely on Iraqi forces to hold the gains we made:
U.S. commanders assert that it is not just the larger number of U.S. troops that has made a difference but also the way those troops operate — closer to the Iraqi population now rather than from big, isolated U.S. bases. Living among the Iraqis, they say, allows for a building of greater trust.
The Iraqi forces will have had more than a year to grow larger and gain experience to help with the holding and eventually take over that role:
Brig. Gen. Stephen Gledhill, the second-in-command for training Iraqi forces, says he is confident that conditions have improved to the point where the Iraqis are capable of filling any U.S. gaps.
"Our answer is that they not only will be able to — they already are, and will continue to do so as they gain experience, capabilities and capacity, and not only here in Baghdad but all around the country," Gledhill said in an e-mail.
Just as important, our surge has perhaps crippled the enemy enough to allow the Iraqi forces to hold:
Last month saw 369 "indirect fire" attacks — the lowest number since February 2006. October's total was half of what it was in the same month a year ago. And it marked the third month in a row of sharply reduced insurgent activity, the military said.
And even with only 15 US brigades, after knocking back the enemy this much, the same number of brigades as we had in January 2007 will be able to do far more when our numbers return to 15 brigades in July 2008. Remember, the way we use our forces is more imporant than the number.
We are winning. And the pace of winning has picked up considerably this fall.
