So is Taiwan preparing to exploit this Chinese desire for a pageant highlighting their rise to world power status? I did raise that possibility in this post.
Clearly, despite my worries that China could be planning to hit Taiwan on the eve of the Olympics using the Olympics as a giant diversion, the Taiwanese assume the Olympics will go on as planned.
Consider that in 2008, after their governing party declared a desire for Taiwan to be a "normal country" with a new constitution, Taiwan plans a presidential election and a referendum on pursuing formal UN membership in March 2008.
And in a week, on Taiwan's National Day, the Taiwanes plan to display reasons China shouldn't tangle with Taiwan, with a military parade of the sort not held since 1991:
Lee's remarks drew special attention as military analysts expected the ministry to unveil for the first time Hsiung-feng (Brave Wind) 2-E, a locally developed cruise missile which could be used to strike the Chinese mainland.
"The display of military equipment is a kind of effective deterrent, so that the Chinese communists would be aware that Taiwan is tough," Lee said while visiting the opposition People First Party's caucus in parliament. ...
Lee did not specify the weaponry to be displayed in the first military parade in more than a decade, but another defence ministry official told AFP "the Hsiung-feng series of missiles would be displayed."
Military analysts say the cruise missile, if deployed, would signal that should war break out, it could be used to strike back at China, attacking military airports and missile bases in southeastern China and coastal cities such as Shanghai.
Local newspapers said Taiwan is building a missile base in Matsu, a fortified island group off China's Fujian province.
Another eye-catching piece of weaponry expected in the parade is Hsiung-feng 3, a lethal supersonic ship-to-ship missile. ...
Military jets -- US-made F-16s, French-made Mirage 2000-5s and home-made Indigenous Defensive Fighters -- would fly by during the celebrations while the armed forces put their tanks, missiles and other weaponry on display.
The Taiwanese may well be right to count on China waiting until after the Olympics before they use force against Taiwan. But China will have a window to invade Taiwan in October 2008, too, as well as the longer window in the pre-Olympics period. And China is still quite clear on any Taiwanese attempt to declare independence:
"We will not sit idle in the case of Taiwan being separated from the mainland in any way and have made well-considered preparations to thwart any Taiwan independence adventures."
Yet Taiwan shouldn't assume that China will wait. Consider the Chinese military leadership shakeup. Although Strategypage sides with the internal security angle with loyalty providing the reason for the skakeup and military effectiveness a secondary consideration, putting better and more loyal generals in charge is surely useful to invade Taiwan. And loyalty will help, of course, in war that risks conflict with America, Japan, and Australia.
Taiwan's National Day in 2008 could be quite significant.
