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Saturday, May 12, 2007

The Eastern Front

Even as we grind down the enemies inside Iraq, the wider Sunni Arab world is starting to realize that they can't be too picky about who holds the critical eastern front of the Arab world against Iran:

There's been a shift in attitude, throughout the Sunni Arab world, towards the Iraqi Shia Arabs that control the Iraqi government. Although the Shia Arabs feel an affinity with Shia Iran, the ancient (we're talking thousands of years here) Arab fear of the Iranians makes it possible for Shia and Sunni Arabs to make deals. And that's what Saudi Arabia, and the other Sunni Arab Gulf States, are doing with Iraq. Saudi Arabia sees Iran as the neighborhood bully, and Iraq as an Arab, not an Iranian, ally. Part of this came about because of the pro-Iran Shia Arab militias in Iraq. Shia Arab politicians in Iraq now tend to feel they are expendable to the Iranians, who are, quite naturally, more concerned with taking care of Iran, than Iraq, in all of this. Blood is thicker than religion.


Sure, it was more comfortable for the Sunni Arab world when an Sunni Arab-ruled state held the line against Shia Persians, but the rest of the Arab world is either too distant or too weak to stand up to the Iranians without Iraq. A Shia Arab-run Iraq (with Kurds and Sunni Arabs freely taking part in governing) is at least mostly Arab. And the supposed ties of Shia Islam (which didn't seem to stop Shia Iranians from killing large numbers of Iraqi Shias in the 1980s) are being frayed by Iran's actions that clearly see mere Arab Shias as pawns.

Every major actor but our Congress seems to be getting used to the idea that the Sunni Arabs still trying to bomb their way back into power have lost.