American-led forces have conducted targeted raids in the Mehdi Army militia stronghold of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr aimed at death squad leaders, but have so far held off from a concerted push into the teeming slum.
In the new campaign, U.S. and Iraqi troops will set up joint checkpoints in Sadr City and conduct large-scale door-to-door operations on houses and buildings, a significant escalation in a plan regarded as the last chance to avert sectarian civil war.
Washington calls the Mehdi Army the greatest threat to peace in Iraq. Sadr is a key political ally of Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and the raids could test Maliki's pledge to target all militants regardless of sectarian affiliation.
So far, the new phase of the war is going as I'd hoped even though I have reservations about our metric for success.
First, we recognize that the Sunni Arabs, whether jihadis, co-called nationalists, or Baathists, can't win and aren't the major threat anymore. Shia thugs, some influenced or controlled by Iran, are the major threat.
Second, we've been going after Sadr's forces and related Shia militias in a targetted and focused manner.
But now, going into the slums in force, I want us to be careful not to do so in a manner that risks losing general Shia support. I remain concerned that adding lots of troops will result in incidents--whether accidental, staged by the enemy, or simply inappropriate--that will alienate Shias. Going into Sadr City can't be primarily an operation targetting Shias. It must protect Shias from Sunni Arab terrorists.
Remember, the Shia militias served a valuable protective function as neighborhood guards even as the thuggish death squad elements murdered Sunni Arabs. We want to stop the latter without interfering with the former.
I hope that negotiations I've heard are taking place are dividing the militias and their leaders into these two groups. If we can bring the good militias into the security forces as recognized local defense forces with government (and American) oversight to make sure they don't branch out into death squad activities, we will achieve a great victory by getting more Sunni Arabs to surrender and end their fight, secure in the knowledge that Shia death squads won't be able to target Sunni Arabs.
And of course, targetting the Sunni terrorists is necessary to keep the Shias from getting new reasons to want revenge.
And please remember, though in many ways this is a cycle of violence, the Sunni Arabs are killing to restore their minority rule. The Shias are killing in revenge for recent and past mass murders of Shias. There really is a difference and there isn't moral equivalence going on here.
This is a very delicate mission.
