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Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Would You Believe Two and a Half?

I mentioned before that we should cut to the chase and go for a three-state solution for Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. Noting the East Pakistan experience, I wrote we should have two Palestinian states:

So with Hamas stronger in Gaza and Fatah stronger in the West Bank, why are we speaking of "a" future Palestinian state. All the convoluted talk of building an elevated highway to link Gaza and the West Bank or some other mechanism to link the two parts just highlights how artificial this assumption is. Prior to 1967, the West Bank was Jordanian and Gaza was Egyptian. Nobody talked then of one Palestinian state (well, they did, but then they meant destroying Israel and just taking over--without Gaza and the West Bank, of course).

Strategypage says that is where we are heading:

The most likely outcome of all this will be Fatah taking control of the West Bank, and Hamas taking control of Gaza.

The post goes on to say that Israel would reoccupy Gaza to take down Hamas.

I don't know about that. Perhaps for a short time. But Israel pulled out because they didn't want to occupy the place. Israel might take advantage of the vulnerabilities of a sovereign Gaza to punish them from across the border. If the West Bank is able to prosper they might look the other way.