One: "I think the Generals would have changed the parameters of their operations, and still have secured the country with what we had—in time."
Two: "But after the 2006 elections, there was no longer any political window, and things have now come to a head where either we win quickly or the politics turn ugly circa 1974."
Three: "I will support the surge in confidence it will work, and hope my reservations about pouring more troops without a change of tactics have been answered by the President’s promises that there is indeed a new way of operations accompanying the addition of 20,000 more soldiers."
These are the basics. We have been winning this war and could have won even by staying the course--but slowly. Our elections ended the chance we could take the time needed to win under the old parameters of fighting. And while the need for adding troops is debatable, as long as they are fighting differently, this "surge" could provide success more quickly than the old ways.
I would only add that the reason we have been winning so slowly is that in the aftermath of the February Samarra bombing, the rise of a new threat--Iranian-backed Shia death squads (Sadr is the most famous)--made the former assumptions built on defeating the Sunni Arabs (Baathists, jihadis, and nationalists) obsolete. We needed to change our approach to increase our pace of winning and would have done so even without the election results.
But the election results make the change more high stakes. Too many supporters and opponents of the war view this as a "final" effort to win (or in the case of opponents, make the defeat they are sure we are experiencing obvious). I hope General Casey's statements will dampen the false hopes of a fast and decisive bettle:
"I think you'll see a gradual evolution over the next two to three months, and then you'll see things continue to get better up through the summer and fall. It'll take some time," he said.We are winning. But it will take more time. Our enemies are taking the time to fight us--we must spend the time to defeat them. Don't throw away what we have achieved. If Patton was alive today, his arm would be damn tired with all the slapping he'd have to do.
