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Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Writing on the Walls

Both the Sunnis inside Iraq and the Saudis have come to the reluctant conclusion that the Sunnis won't bomb and shoot their way back into power.

Various Iraqi groups began a meeting in Jordan to try and hammer out terms for the Sunnis to avoid being driven from Iraq and retain a constructive role in post-Saddam Iraq:

The movement was formed by both Sunni and Shiite Muslims, and includes Iraqi politicians, former military officers, former leaders of Saddam's Baath party, intellectuals and tribal chiefs representing most of Iraq's ethnic and religious factions.

Created in Amman in August, it is headed by prominent tribal leader Hamid al-Gaoud of Anbar province — where many insurgents are based — and aims at helping maintain Iraq's unity and ending the bloodshed.


The Saudis, too, who fear that if the war drags on the Shias of Iraq will drive a million or more Sunnis into Saudi Arabai, are looking to end the Sunni insurgency/invitation to ethnic cleansing:

Saudi Arabia was always rather tolerant of Saddam Hussein running Iraq, because Saddam was seen as capable of keeping the Iranians in check. When Saddam was overthrown in 2003, the Saudis were dismayed that the Iraqi Sunnis kept on fighting, and joined forces with al Qaeda (which began with the goal of destroying the Saudi monarchy.) But now most Iraqi Sunnis have accepted that a comeback is unlikely. However, the hardcore Iraqi Sunnis are strong enough to keep the killing going. And the Iraqi Shia vengeance attacks have been increasing, along with the possibility that over a million Iraqi Sunnis will flee and seek refuge in Saudi Arabia. The Iraqi Sunnis know that the mother of the Saudi king is an Iraqi. So now the Saudis are hustling to cool things down in Iraq, by any means necessary.


The Saudis even consider partitioning Iraq acceptable to end the fighting, though I think that should be ruled out.

But fear truly is the beginning of wisdom, as I've noted from time to time. It is taking the Sunnis a God-awful lot of time to get a clue that continued resistance will just get them killed, but it is finally happening.