There are increasing indications that Fidel Castro is not going to return to power. His brother Raul has recently established close ties to nationalist elements in the Cuban Communist Party and in the Armed Forces. He has apparently played on suspicions that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' wants to inherit Fidel's mantle as the leader of radicalism in Latin America, and could take actions that would compromise Cuban security and independence.
And civil war inside Cuba is a possibility, according to Strategypage. So how popular is Hugo in Cuba anyway? Could some in Cuba be inspired by him to fight for a more aggressive Cuba? Will Cubans take to the sea to flee to Florida if violence breaks out on the island?
More broadly, will the death of Fidel trigger a Latin America crisis as Hugo grabs for the leadership role by provoking a crisis in the Caribbean Sea?
As much as I'd rather not deal with Cuba right now, when is the "right" time when it will be most convenient for us?
And this thinking is dangerously close to the thinking of South Koreans and Chinese who'd rather North Koreans suffer and die rather than pay a cost of seeing North Koreans free themselves.
If the Cubans can free themselves, we should not be realists in hoping for the stability of oppression because it is more convenient for us in the short run.
