When the Israelis first went into Gaza, I figured this was a good opportunity for a good conventional punitive mission to inflict pain on Hamas and let them pick up the pieces:
Hamas forces are set up to defend their land rather than cooperate in capturing the thugs and freeing the Israeli soldier. The Palestinian gunmen will die trying to hold their land. And by telling civilians to get out of the way, they won't get a faux Stalingrad as at Jenin. This will be conventional warfare.
Israel is getting the advantage of dealing with a state-like entity with assets that can be harmed.
And Israel will have no responsibility for supplying water and electricity to the residents of Gaza when they pull back out.
I assumed, but didn't write, that special ops and spooks should have been the prime means of getting their soldier back, complementing the conventional mission to hit the sponsors in retaliation.
But Israel didn't play it this way:
The Israelis should have assaulted and killed as many Hamas gunmen as they could in a short operation that takes advantage of the window of opportunity provided by the kidnapping of their soldier.
Before long, this window will close and we will hear the whining about a new Israeli occupation and see grimly concerned Euros nodding their heads in agreement.
And as long as the Hamas thugs don't kill their prisoner, the Israelis will feel compelled to keep their troops inside Gaza, where they will be targets of attack by Hamas and so-called human rights groups. In time, the Israelis will retreat and it will look like a defeat. Even if the Hamas thugs eventually release the soldier, the terms and any Israeli casualties in this incursion will make it look like Hamas won.
This should have been a conventional punitive operation playing to Israel's strengths. But that isn't how it is working out.
And now, the Israelis are chasing after new prisoners in Lebanon to find two soldiers Hezbollah has captured!
Now Israel looks like it is occupying two countries. How long will it be before Europeans complain and once again open the money spigot to the "poor oppressed Palestinians?" Israel already withdrew from both Gaza and Lebanon because the cost was too high. How many of Hamas and Hezbollah think Israel will stay long now?
And Israel is giving Iran and Syria a gift with this threat:
Army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz warned the Lebanese government that the Israeli military will target infrastructure and "turn back the clock in Lebanon by 20 years," if the soldiers were not returned, Israeli TV reported.
We finally manage to get Syria out of Lebanon and could get a truly free and friendly Lebanon; and now Syria will be able to move back in to "defend" Lebanon if Israel persists in this thundering incursion for long. Iran will be happy to see a distraction that buys them time just as we are heading to some sort of confrontation with Iran over their nukes.
Israel could finally make an enemy government of Palestinians--an enemy headed by the Hamas thugs no less!--pay the price for attacking Israel; but Israel occupies them partially instead, inspiring sympathy for the Palestinians once again and maybe keeping Fatah and Hamas from fighting each other.
In addition, Israel will mobilize thousands of reservists ensuring that it will feel more pain than their enemies.
Israel should hammer the Hamas-run security forces, hit Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, and quietly go after Syrian and Iranian assets. They should not pin their army down where it can be physically attacked and portrayed as a new occupation while trying futilely to find three men in vast areas of friendly people who can hide them. Punishing and killing enemies is an army mission. Finding kidnap victims is not an army mission.
Israel is screwing the pooch on this one so badly that it is amazing.
UPDATE: Maybe Israel will be more successful than I think in focusing on the source of the problem rather than just bouncing Lebanese rubble.
But large conventional army forces inside Lebanon still makes no sense to me.
Just remember, if someone is hitting you with a stick, the stick is not your assailant.
