Passing the Baton

Another analysis of our casualty trends in Iraq.

The war is still going on, but we are succeeding in turning over the fight to the Iraqis.

Still, as the post observes, don't expect a discussion of the overall trend if April turns out to have more casualties than March. And since we had a bad day--which is rare--already in the month, in which nine of our personnel were confirmed killed (including an accident where three are missing and I assume dead), this is increasingly likely.

If we still come in lower in April that will be pretty significant in continuing the trend.

And via Instapundit, this post about other casualty and attack statistics declining including Iraqi security force casualties and suicide bombs.

Let me caution that declining American casualties are not a sign necessarily that we are winning any more than rising casualties indicate we are losing. They are not the metric of success or failure. The larger trends, however, that show we are winning will eventually result in lower casualties as the enemy is ground down and either give up fighting, are killed, or flee the country.

The question is whether this fairly broad statistical trend is the result of the past larger trends in winning and therefore an indication that victory is finally arriving.