And though I worry about China, I don't think China will necessarily rise to world power status.
I only had one grad class on China, so I'm hardly an expert; but I think of China as the opposite of Europe. Europe is divided with periodic attempts at unity (force or regulations). China is united with periodic breakdowns into separate political units. China is big with mutually incomprehensible dialects in different regions despite the common written language. And non-Chinese areas in the West are even less "Chinese."
So China could spin apart (via Real Clear Politics) under the stresses of modernizing:
China’s rulers face an ongoing crisis of legitimacy. There is abundant evidence that very substantial discontent exists among its population. We must never forget that China’s leadership is frightened not just of losing power, but of the disintegration of China itself. There is ample historical precedent in a culture which reveres its history. Within the last century local warlords ruled various regions which had broken away from the central government.
While overall wealth has risen substantially over the last 3 decades of capitalism rising, there has been on balance a substantial majority of the people left behind, resentful, cynical, threatened, and envious of the few hundred million winners in the big rich coastal cities and favored classes. Random sparks thus ignite violent spontaneous protests. It is a pre-revolutionary environment.
Or China could evolve into a democratic ally and friend.
But China is a short-term threat regardless of the future. Don't make them our enemy needlessly but don't ignore their hostile actions either. As I've also said, I wouldn't trade places with China. But respect them enough to take them seriously.
Keep our powder dry. I don't know what the future of China will be. We certainly shouldn't assume China will collapse or become a friend.
