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Monday, October 07, 2024

The Winter War of 2022 Seeks Victory

Russia wants to win the war it started. Ukraine wants to win the war imposed on it. What's the West's view on victory or defeat in this war?


The war goes on. Russia continues to buy recruits rather than mobilizing unwilling civilians, indicating Putin doesn't have the control Stalin had; Russia continues to gain ground at high cost; Ukraine continues to wage strategic warfare against Russian logistics supporting the war; and Russia continues to commit war crimes.

Whatever else you can and should say about Putin's evil, he isn't confused about the purpose of continuing his invasion:

President Vladimir Putin used a state holiday aimed at asserting Russia's grip on occupied territory to repeat a pledge to achieve his aims in Ukraine.

The West recoils from victory which provides enemies a safety net to pursue victory when prudence should tell them to cut a deal while they can before they lose

UPDATE (Monday): Strategypage thinks Russia is losing:

It appears that Russia has lost and is running short of soldiers and weapons. Russian leader Vladimir Putin refuses to acknowledge the reality of the situation and insists that he will keep fighting in Ukraine indefinitely. 

Strategypage notes the GDP advantage (especially GDP-per-capita) of the West for supplying and supporting Ukraine. Which is something I highlighted early in the war

UPDATE (Friday): Interesting:

The Russian military appears to be increasingly recruiting older Russian volunteers in order to sustain ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I mined the image from my old DALL-E 3 stockpile.