I'm all in favor of learning lessons from Ukraine's war against Russia's invasion. But sometimes the lessons learned perplex me.
I think this is a mistaken lesson:
Speaking at a media event Aug. 18, Gen. James Hecker — who also leads Allied Air Command and is the director of the Joint Air Power Competence Centre — said the “largest lesson we’ve learned” from the conflict in Ukraine is “that neither side was able to get air superiority.”
We know why Ukraine hasn't gotten air superiority. It barely has an air force. The thought of getting a mere 50 or more F-16s is Ukraine's current wet dream.
I suspect that Russia's failure to exploit its overwhelming aircraft advantage is due not primarily to Ukraine's air defenses but to Russian doctrine:
As I briefly explained recently:
I think air superiority isn't as important for ground combat in an age of precision, long-range ground artillery. With a caveat that you at least have to nullify enemy air superiority.The Russians had it right, I believed--if Russia can nullify enemy air power.
I've wondered if Russia's air force will intervene in force during the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Now I wonder if it can even if it wants to. Especially if it gets into maneuver warfare.
Sure, part of Russia's caution is that it doesn't want to risk its expensive planes and pilots. But Russia has planned to use alternatives based on artillery and long-range missiles (both air-, sea-, and ground-launched).
Also, how is this a major lesson for the U.S. Air Force? Shouldn't having an integrated air defense have been a priority even when it thought Russian planes would enthusiastically strike NATO forces and infrastructure?
Why is Russian use of ground-bases systems instead of their large air force a wake-up call? Aren't American stealth planes already the answer to get through Russian air defenses? If not, what's the point of stealth?
These issues should have been part of the mix already given that America relies on air power rather than lots of artillery.
I'm just kind of perplexed about the fixation on the belief that airplanes have a monopoly on fire support.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
