Is Lukashenko trying to make Belarus a "porcupine" to deter Russia from using force to control Belarus? or is Putin using Belarus to break Europe's recent and unexpected resolve to defeat and contain Russia?
The Belarusians may be trying to stiff-arm Russia:
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko appears to have found an opportunity to exploit the weakened mercenary organization and reduce his country's reliance on Russia by having the ruthless fighters train his military — something in which Moscow's forces have previously been heavily involved.
I noted that Wagner and nukes could give Belarus some room to push back against the Anschluss Russia is imposing. I wrote:
Belarus may attempt to use Wagner forces that choose to move to Belarus plus nuclear weapons as means to push back against Russian control by portraying Belarus as capable of halting NATO. Lukashenko is awful. But we really want him to be awfully independent from Russian control.
Wagner can help train Belarus troops. And pose an offensive threat inside Russia, perhaps, in support of factions inside Russia. And if Putin ever sends nuclear warheads to Belarus, Belarus might gain control of the warheads, giving Belarus a small nuclear deterrent. Even if Belarus could not use the warheads, would Russia be sure of that?
Combine those actions with Russia's focus on fighting Ukraine, and Belarus might have some room to maneuver if Lukashenko wants to try to loosen Russian domination.
And ISW observed this about the Lukashenko-Putin meeting in Russia:
Lukashenko was likely trying to leverage Putin’s concern over the Wagner Group throughout the entire visit to Russia to gain favorable conditions in Belarusian-Russian relations while deflecting Putin’s demands for closer integration into the Union State and support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Still, Wagner is looking scary:
Poland has warned that a growing presence of mercenaries from Russia's Wagner private military firm in Belarus is aimed at destabilizing NATO's eastern flank amid the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine.
Unless this is Scary Theater to ease Putin's worries about Wagner working with the Belarus government by making it look like Wagner is a threat to NATO. Or perhaps this is an effort by Lukashenko to get Putin to fund Wagner inside Belarus as Lukashenko expected--which seems in doubt (the report goes into some depth speculating on what is going on).
Belarus is very close to Russia and has had a role in the war, however minor. It might be possible for the EU to work with Belarus, and from there the road to Moscow might be easier to take.
Putin may see Belarus as a tool for restoring past European willingness to accommodate Putin and restore trade and investments with Russia.
Yet the question may be what Lukashenko thinks he can do. He has long tried to balance Russia with the West. That has failed in recent years as Putin has pulled Belarus into Russia's orbit. Does Lukashenko think the Winter War of 2022 is an opportunity to loosen Russia's control?
So this is delicate. Lukashenko is a thug ruler. But it would be better if he can reduce Russian influence in Belarus. Because excluding Russia from Belarus would be better for NATO.
UPDATE: Interesting:
Russian President Vladimir Putin is not trying to push Belarus into joining the war in Ukraine, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in an online interview published on Thursday.
Russia clearly would like additional troops. If Putin isn't asking it is because he knows he would be rejected and doesn't want to be humiliated.
And Lukashenko made sure we knew that.
UPDATE: Here we go?
Poland's President Andrzej Duda said Tuesday that Russia already is in the process of shifting some short-range nuclear weapons to neighboring Belarus, a move that Duda said will shift the security architecture of the region and the entire NATO military alliance.
Giving nukes to Belarus makes no sense to me. Can Russia be sure that Belarus can't gain control through intelligence cracking of codes or bribery of corrupt Russians maintaining custody of the warheads?
To me, it makes the most sense that Russia would provide Belarus with disabled actual nuclear warheads incapable of being used as weapons against Russia--or against NATO, which might drag Russia into a nuclear war. But from a distance they'd appear to be genuine working nukes.
UPDATE: So will Lukashenko be cowed or will he learn he must kill the king when he strikes?
Lukashenko’s act of directly negotiating with Prigozhin in June and then bragging about the role he had played notably embarrassed Putin. Prigozhin’s assassination has likely signaled to Lukashenko both a dramatic reduction of his negotiating space with the Kremlin and an implicit threat against his continued attempts to resist Union State integration efforts.Interesting times.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
