America should quietly back an effort to create an international mine sweeping effort in the Black Sea. That would protect grain exports to a hungry world and make it clear Russia is preventing the grain from flowing.
Russia is blockading the world:
Russia has laid sea mines in the Black Sea that could interfere with Ukrainian grain exports, the White House announced Wednesday.
Ukraine has gotten some interest in shipping the grain in defiance of Russia's threats:
There is still interest from ship owners in carrying Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea — if they can mitigate the risk, according to a major shipping group. And that’s a big if.
Recall we organized an international mine sweeping effort in the Red Sea when Libya dropped sea mines there:
Operation Intense Look was launched in response to the Red Sea and Gulf of Suez mine crisis, when naval mines were discovered in these vital shipping lanes. Libya's mining of the Red Sea in 1984 focused attention on the need to protect shipping lanes leading to the Suez Canal and the need for more advanced mine countermeasure vessels.
I reject the proposal that NATO states should be directly involved in such an operation. And I absolutely reject reflagging grain ships under the American flag as we did during the Iran-Iraq War to protect oil tankers from Iranian attacks. Russia is not Iran. Nor any of the other states America stood up to for the defense of free use of the seas. And even with Iran we ended up in a shooting war with Iranian forces intermittently. I don't think we really want that now. Russia is getting hammered and I'd rather not change the terms of the fight with extra complications.
But NATO could support from a distance a multinational coalition of states that rely on the food exports:
Russia’s withdrawal from a UN-and Turkish-brokered deal to allow the export of grain from Ukrainian ports again threatens the food security of millions living in drought- and famine-affected regions around the world.
Certainly there is pressure from within the U.N. to resume grain shipments. And can Russia be confident this ploy will attract supporters rather than alienate current supporters?
Maybe a modularized auxiliary cruiser mothership, The Rescue Queen, could be put together and transferred to that coalition's control as a mother ship to support the operation away from NATO land bases.
Sure, Russia could shoot at the grain ships:
Russia's Defence Ministry said on Friday that its Black Sea Fleet had practised firing rockets at surface targets in a live fire exercise, two days after it warned that ships heading to Ukraine's Black Sea ports could be considered military targets.But I bet the Russians would prefer to let ships hit mines they were warned about rather than actively shoot at ships. That looks really bad.
The mine clearing effort would both help feed hungry people and rally non-Western countries to oppose Russia's war on Ukraine. That sounds better than putting the burden on America and making countries worry about a general war in Europe that could spread to Asia and draw in many more states before it ends.
Although the Russians are bombing Ukraine's grain export infrastructure and food storage sites, perhaps in an effort to make an international response moot.
UPDATE: This seems prudent:
NATO said Wednesday it was stepping up surveillance of the Black Sea region as it condemned Russia’s exit from a landmark deal that allowed Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea.
Maybe it will be the foundation for an international escort flotilla of countries that need the food.
UPDATE: Limits:
The U.S. does not plan to send any assets to the Black Sea amidst tensions over the Russian withdrawal from the U.N.-Turkey brokered grain deal, the Pentagon said Tuesday.
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
