The Russian winter offensive in the Donbas seemed to put most of its effort into taking the small city of Bakhmut. The way Russia attacked so persistently and at such a high cost, you'd think the city was named "Zelenskygrad."
Glorious victory, comrades! After twenty-thousand dead Russian soldiers in 5 months of attacking, Russia has finally almost captured that fulcrum of Ukraine, the small Donbas city of Bakhmut!
Ukraine is apparently counterattacking a bit with small-scale operations to exploit the Russian depletion of their army. This includes around Bakhmut. Which may signal peak Russian advances in that long-sought objective. Still, Russian attacks continue at points across the front, including inside Bakhmut.
There are Westerners who want to rescue Putin by pushing a ceasefire. My advice on diplomacy with the Russians remains largely my advice over eight years ago when that first invasion was about a year old:
Given that Putin is already flouting the UN charter, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, and even a more recent ceasefire plan, by invading Ukraine, in what alternate world do we think we must test Russia's commitment to a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine War?
If Ukraine can win, let them. The issue now is whether Ukraine can conduct a large offensive to take land without enduring casualties on the scale of Russia's expensive hammer blows.
And Ukraine might do better than we think they can: "What if Ukraine ends up routing Russian occupation positions relatively swiftly and effectively, with the Russian military in a hopeless retreat?" I'm hoping the Russians are sitting there like the Italian army in Egypt before the British Wavell Offensive.
One reason for Western pessimism is that Ukraine does not have air superiority. I think air superiority isn't as important for ground combat in an age of precision, long-range ground artillery. With a caveat that you at least have to nullify enemy air superiority.
In
reviewing a book I read a while ago on operational art by Robert M. Citino, I noted his observation that Germany's World War II
integration of mechanized ground forces, close air support, and radios
wasn't fully developed at first. In the 1940 France campaign, German air
power was not yet able to directly support the German army once it broke
through French lines and began its exploitation drive to the English
Channel. So that's a prominent example of ground-based advances in the absence of close air support by either side in a decisive ground advance.
Not that air power isn't extremely useful to have. That's not my part of my conditional argument. I just don't assume Ukraine can't attack without air support. Ground-based precision fires may be able to replace what we've long assumed air power must provide.
Now, whether Ukraine can sustain an advance if Russia can unleash its air force on the attacking Ukrainian units is another question. Pity we didn't jump start a Ukrainian fighter force last year.
UPDATE (Tuesday): As Ukraine counterattacks around Bakhmut, Russia has reinforced the flanks. And doubled down on taking the city itself:
The reported Russian reinforcements to the Bakhmut area suggest that Russian forces are continuing to concentrate offensive capabilities there despite an assessed wider effort to reprioritize operations to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Interesting. Russia really has tunnel vision on Bakhmut.
UPDATE (Thursday): Ukraine's local counterattacks around Bakhmut have cumulatively had an effect:
Ukrainian forces have seized the tactical initiative and made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18.
This despite the Russian attacks on Ukraine's toehold in the city itself.
UPDATE (Saturday): Russia is darned close to capturing all of Bakhmut. Will Ukrainian local counter-attacks on the flanks compel Russian troops to pull back in time to prevent its complete loss?
It's a prestige thing now. Although a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive would reverse that loss of prestige dramatically.
UPDATE (Sunday): I heard this morning that Bakhmut fell to the Russians. Medals all around in Moscow, I suppose.
UPDATE (Sunday): The Ukrainians are openly talking about an assault across the Dnieper River on the Kherson front. A crossing really relies on lack of Russian troops to counter-attack. And Ukrainian air defenses of bridges thrown across the wide river.
UPDATE (Sunday): Medals all around:
Putin said that the battle - the longest and bloodiest of the 15-month war - had ended in a Russian victory, and that all those who had excelled in it on Moscow's side would be given state awards.
NOTE: ISW coverage of the war continues here.
