Russia could become a serious problem for NATO if it defeats Ukraine. Russia will immediately become a deadly serious problem for NATO if Russia absorbs Belarus.
I've been worried about Russia taking over Belarus because of its vital geography:
As we look at the Russian threat, Belarus should be a major subject of study. Belarus is a former Soviet state whose independence puts a sizable buffer between NATO Poland and Russia.
And as I've noted for both the defense of the NATO Baltic states and friendly but non-NATO Ukraine, Belarus in Russian hands (or friendly to Russia) threatens the eastern flanks of the Baltic states and the northern flank of Ukraine.
We are in many ways very rightly focused on Russia's overt and bloody invasion of Ukraine. But to the north in Belarus, the Anschluss continues:
Russia's influence over Belarus will likely grow in the coming years, although Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will probably seek to slow Moscow's integration efforts to preserve his place in power.
In the meantime, Lukashenko reaches out to China to balance Russian economic dominance. But could China funnel war aid to Russia laundered through Belarus? Belarus is landlocked, of course. That surely limits the scope of support by this method.
But Belarus has a great value to Russia as a launching pad to attack Poland and the Baltic NATO states, which could also link up with Russia's Kaliningrad exclave.
Indeed, when Russia starting massing troops on Ukraine's border, I wondered if it was intended to complete the Anschluss with Belarus by dangling the shiny Ukrainian object in front of our eyes.
The war is pushing Belarus toward Russia. But could a Ukrainian victory overturn Russia's subliminal Anschluss?
UPDATE: Lukashenko is resisting being drawn into the war but is seemingly paying for that by slowly giving ground on Putin's Anschluss with Belarus. How much longer can Lukashenko play that game until Russia controls Belarus enough to simply order Belarus to join the war?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 continues here.
